Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports by Jonathan Bales

Author:Jonathan Bales
Language: eng
Format: azw3, epub
Tags: Football (American), Finance, Puzzles & Games, DFS, Sports, Humor & Entertainment, Gambling, Fantasy Baseball, Sports & Outdoors, Daily Fantasy Sports, Fantasy Sports
Publisher: Amazon Digital Services, Inc.
Published: 2014-11-19T06:00:00+00:00

Building the MLB Prototype

As mentioned, baseball is very much a binary sport—it’s always batter vs. pitcher with the conditions nearly exactly the same—so analyzing positions doesn’t make as much sense as analyzing stats. Here’s an overview of the most predictive baseball stats not used by the masses to help you adjust your initial aggregate projections. You can find all of them at FanGraphs.

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

BABIP is one of my favorite stats in baseball because it can quickly give you an estimate of a hitter’s luck in getting on base. For the most part, a player’s BABIP is due to random factors, such as defensive strength, an exorbitant number of bloop hits, and so on. That means that BABIP typically regresses toward each player’s career average (which is between .290 and .310 for most players).

When a player has been getting on base quite a bit when he shouldn’t be, he’ll have a higher-than-normal BABIP. When you see a BABIP in the .400 range over an extended period, it’s a sign to steer clear of that hitter.

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